From:
Our Future - Things To Ponder.
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The FUTURE is
approaching faster than one can handle . . . !
In 1998,
Kodak had 170,000 employees and
sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model
disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years and, most people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.
The first ones only had 10,000
pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential
technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way
superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now
happen again with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and
electric cars, education, 3Dprinting, agriculture
and jobs. Welcome to the 4th
Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential
Age .
Software will disrupt
most traditional industries in the next 5-10
years.
Uber is just a software
tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi
company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest
hotel company in the world, although they don't own any
properties.
Artificial Intelligence:
Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world . This
year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10
years earlier than expected.
In the US , young lawyers
already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson,
you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within
seconds, with 90% accuracy compared
with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop
immediately. There will be 90%
less lawyers in the future, only specialists
will remain.
Watson already helps nurses
diagnosing cancer, its 4 times
more accurate than human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern
recognition softwarethat can recognize faces better than
humans. In 2030, computers will
become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars
: In 2018 the first self
driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020,
the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You
don't want to own a car anymore. You will call
a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you
to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven distance and can be productive while driving.
Our kids will never get a driver's
licence and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we
will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform
former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die
each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident
every 60,000 miles (100,000
km), with
autonomous
driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6
million miles (10 million km). That
will save a million lives each
year.
Most car companies will probably become
bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary
approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla,
Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build
a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are
completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies
will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will
become 100x cheaper.
Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will
change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will
move further away to live in a more beautiful neighbourhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.
Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.
Electricity will become incredibly cheap
and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve
for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning
impact.
Last year, more solar energy was
installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately
trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home
solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of
that strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and
abundant water. Desalination of
salt water now only needs 2kWh
per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't
have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking
water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean
water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder
X price will be announced this year. There are
companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder"
from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan,
your blood sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54 bio-markers
that will identify nearly any disease..
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have
access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free Goodbye,
medical establishment.
3D printing: The price
of the cheapest 3D printer came down
from $18,000 to $400
within 10 years. In the same
time, it became 100 times faster. All
major shoe companies have already started 3D
printing shoes.
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D
printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that
eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to
have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart
phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D
scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they already 3D
printed and built a complete 6-storey
office building. By 2027,
10% of everything that's being
produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities:
If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself: "In
the future, do I think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how
can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the
idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th
century is doomed to failure in the 21st
century.
Work :
70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20years.
There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be
enough
new jobs in such a short time. This will
require a rethink on wealth
distribution.
Agriculture :
There will be a $100 agricultural robot in
the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can
then become managers of their field instead of working all day on
their fields.
Aeroponics will
need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now
available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.
Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used
for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
There are several start-ups who will
bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more
protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative
protein source" (because most people still reject
the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies"
which can already tell in which mood you’re
in. By 2020 there will be apps
that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine
a political debate where it's being displayed when they’re
telling the truth and when they’re
not.
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